Forecast Accuracy (MAPE) Calculator
Compare your forecast with actual rooms sold for up to 14 days and see your average error, whether you over- or under-forecast, and how to improve.
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How to use the free Forecast Accuracy (MAPE) Calculator
- Enter your figures in the fields above – use real numbers from your PMS, channel manager or accounts.
- Tap the button to see the result instantly. Change any value to compare scenarios.
- Copy, print or save the result and use it in your daily or monthly review.
This Forecast Accuracy (MAPE) Calculator runs fully in your browser on mobile or desktop – no sign-up and nothing is uploaded. Free forecast accuracy calculator for hotels. Compare forecast vs actual rooms for up to 14 days to get MAPE, bias, an accuracy grade and practical tips.
Why forecast accuracy matters
Every pricing decision rests on a forecast. If you expect 85 rooms and sell 70, you may have held rates too high or turned away a group. If you expect 70 and sell 90, you probably sold the last rooms too cheaply. Measuring accuracy regularly shows whether your forecast can be trusted and in which direction it tends to miss.
MAPE and bias explained
MAPE = Average of (|Error| ÷ Actual) × 100
Bias = (Total forecast − Total actual) ÷ Total actual × 100
- MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) tells you how far off the forecast is on an average day, ignoring direction.
- Bias tells you the direction. A positive bias means you usually over-forecast; a negative bias means you usually under-forecast.
Example: forecast 62 rooms, actual 60 gives an error of +2 and 3.3% for that day. A two-week MAPE of 4% with a bias near zero is a strong forecast. A MAPE of 15% with a bias of +10% means you consistently expect more business than arrives.
The grade used here is a practical guide: under 5% excellent, 5% to 10% good, 10% to 20% fair and above 20% poor. Small hotels see larger % errors because one or two rooms move the figure a lot, so compare yourself with your own past results.
How to improve your forecast
- Compare the forecast you made a fixed number of days out, such as 7 or 14, with what actually happened.
- Split groups from transient guests and apply a wash to group blocks.
- Note local events, holidays and weather that explain big misses.
- Use pickup pace, not just last year's figure, to update the forecast.
Build the next forecast with the hotel occupancy forecast calculator, track how bookings build up with the booking pace calculator, and record daily pickup with the pickup report generator.
Frequently asked questions
What is MAPE in hotel forecasting?
MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error. It is the average of each day's forecast error as a percentage of actual rooms sold, ignoring whether the forecast was high or low.
What is a good forecast accuracy for a hotel?
As a practical guide, a MAPE under 5% is excellent and 5% to 10% is good. Small hotels often see higher figures because a few rooms change the percentage a lot.
What does forecast bias tell me?
Bias shows the direction of errors. Positive bias means you usually forecast more rooms than you sell; negative bias means you usually forecast fewer, which can lead to selling rooms too cheaply.
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